Archive for July, 2007

DOW…nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

Thursday, July 26th, 2007
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After going sideways and struggling to breach the 13700 mark for most of late spring and the earlier part of the summer, the dow FINALLY did push through.  Many people then mailed me complaining that since the dow was now over the 13700 mark, I should be talking about all kinds of new stocks and featuring charts and talking up Coffee Pacifica again.
 As I mentioned in numerous earlier entries, the dows push over 13700 was not convincing, took too long to happen and may be short lived.
UGH… 
  As we can see now, I was right, as the dow suffered its worst one day drop of the year.
Many people have been e-mailing me asking why there was no new blog entries lately, well, while waiting for the dow to crash, really, what was there to say?
Most charts I’ve look at lately sucked, today for example, I think I saw three good ones, three!  That’s out of over 2000.
As well, over 80% of stocks on the NASDAQ were in the red….UGLY!
This may in fact be my last entry till fall, I cannot say for sure, but people who know better than I do about such matters have already told me they’ve had enough for the summer, and are going on vacations till september.
After expecting the dow to tumble, and then having today happen which was even worse than I expected, it really is enough to make anyone go on vacation, for a very long time!
If anything REALLY noteworthy happens I’ll post it, otherwise…see u in the fall!

The two faces of amateur investors…

Friday, July 20th, 2007

                                         

 

One of the most common characteristics of amateur investors is how two faced they are, not you of course, you’re special….just everybody else.

 

Noobs as I will call them, are always gung-ho, happy and full of enthusiasm…when things are going thier way. 

When the markets turn ugly, and they fail to sell out at a stop loss, they scream, kick, cry, whine, bitch, become completely negative and swear that if they can just get out of this one bad trade, they’ll never do it again…………….until next time.

A lot of what trading is about, I’ve learned, is patience. If a stock drops, but not quite to your stopout, you have to be patient. If you’re holding a stock long term and you find yourself below water for a couple weeks, you have to be patient.

You have to, in MY humble opinion, learn to stay even and neutral, regardless of if you’re up, or down. Don’t berate yourself too much, and don’t congratulate yourself too much either.

If you get overly pessimistic when things are going bad and you cannot control your emotions, you should get out of the trading game. If you get overly pleased with your self, the markets will come back and fuck you in the ass, HARD!

 

Financial Message boards…

Thursday, July 19th, 2007

Someone sent me an e-mail concerning the validity of financial message boards.

 Here’s my opinion on them, worthless.

 

Any financial message board you go to is dangerous because you have hundreds of people, all with their own little opinions about everything.

Those who are long will post messages about imaginary conference calls they heard, inflated earnings potential, etc, etc.

Those who are short will tell you they heard a news story about the company CEO and a goat.  Bottom line, people lie on message boards, it’s part of the game.

 Do your own research, make your own decisions, never, EVER buy a stock based on what people say on a message board, especially if you are short term or position trading.

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 The dow finally broke through 13700, then pulled back slightly, but now it looks like the markets on a roll and we will be showing a few new stock ideas next week.

Anyone who owned Coffee Pacifica or any of the other long term holds we discussed would be  (just my opinion) foolish to sell now.  They have been drastically oversold and have returned to near all time lows, the only way for them to go now…is up!

Remember, long term means the stock can drop, right after we mention it, long term means more than a few weeks.  Long term means the company has a good business model and earnings potential….LONG TERM…is great.

 

That’s all for now, and remember, seatbelts save lives!